The Most Reliable Weather Model, Ranked
Voting rules: Choose the weather model you think is the most reliable!
Updated on Apr 28, 2024 06:57
In a world where weather patterns seem to shift with increasing unpredictability, having access to a reliable weather model can mean the difference between being caught unprepared in a storm and having the foresight to plan accordingly. Numerous models claim to predict atmospheric changes accurately, but discerning which ones truly deliver on their promises can be a challenge. Ranking these models based on user feedback helps create a clearer picture of their effectiveness.
By participating in the rankings, users contribute to a broader understanding of which models consistently provide valuable forecasts. This not only assists everyday planning for individuals and businesses alike but also enhances safety by informing better decision-making before extreme weather events. Your votes help refine the accuracy of this valuable resource, benefiting communities worldwide by elevating the most trustworthy and precise weather prediction tools.
What Is the Most Reliable Weather Model?
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122votes
ManfredKloeppel · CC BY 3.0European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - known for its accuracy in predicting weather beyond the standard three-day forecast period.The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an international organization that provides global numerical weather predictions. It is regarded as one of the most reliable weather models worldwide.- Resolution: The ECMWF model has a horizontal resolution of approximately 9 km.
- Forecast Range: The forecast range of the ECMWF model extends up to 15 days.
- Data Assimilation: The ECMWF model uses advanced data assimilation techniques to combine observations with the model's initial conditions.
- Ensemble Prediction: The ECMWF model runs a large ensemble of perturbed forecasts to assess forecast uncertainty.
- Global Coverage: The ECMWF model provides global coverage, making predictions for all regions of the world.
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232votesGlobal Forecast System - run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and provides global weather data.The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather model developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It is one of the most widely used and trusted weather models in the world, providing global weather forecasts for various timeframes and variables.
- Resolution: T574 (approximately 23km)
- Forecast Range: Up to 16 days
- Time Steps: 3 hours
- Forecast Variables: Temperature, precipitation, wind speed/direction, humidity, pressure, cloud cover, etc.
- Model Update Frequency: 4 times per day
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317votes
Pierre cb · CC BY-SA 3.0Canadian Meteorological Centre - uses advanced numerical weather prediction technology to produce accurate forecasts.The Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) is the operational arm of the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), responsible for providing weather forecasts and guiding decision-making for various sectors in Canada. It is one of the primary weather models used in Canada and is known for its reliability and accuracy.- Model Type: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
- Model Resolution: Global: 0.75 degrees, Regional: 0.15 degrees
- Forecast Range: Up to 7 days
- Update Frequency: 4 times per day
- Data Assimilation: Global: Global Environmental Multiscale model (GEM), Regional: GEM Regional model
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416votes
United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO)
UK GovernmentUnited Kingdom Met Office - provides forecasts for the UK and international locations.The United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) is the national meteorological service for the United Kingdom. It provides weather forecasts, climate services, and a range of other meteorological and environmental services to the country and internationally.- Model Name: UKMO Unified Model
- Resolution: As fine as 1.5 km grid scale
- Forecast Range: Up to 7 days
- Update Frequency: Multiple times per day
- Data Sources: Satellites, radars, weather stations, ocean observation, and more
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511votes
Daderot · CC BY-SA 3.0National Center for Atmospheric Research - provides weather forecasts and research for the United States.The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is a research institution dedicated to the study of Earth's atmosphere and its interactions with the surrounding environment. It is located in Boulder, Colorado, United States. The center focuses on comprehensive atmospheric and related research, including climate dynamics, weather prediction, air quality, and solar-terrestrial interactions.- Location: Boulder, Colorado, United States
- Research Focus: Atmospheric and related research
- Areas of Study: Climate dynamics, weather prediction, air quality, solar-terrestrial interactions
- Operated By: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
- Funding Agency: National Science Foundation (NSF)
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611votes
Bidgee · CC BY 3.0Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
Australian GovernmentAustralian Bureau of Meteorology - provides weather forecasts and warnings for Australia.The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is the national weather agency of Australia. It provides weather forecasts, warnings, and observations for the entire country.- Established: January 1, 1908
- Headquarters: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Coverage: Australia and surrounding areas
- Services: Weather forecasts, warnings, climate information
- Official Website: http://www.bom.gov.au/
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76votes
Suisui · Public domainJapan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Japan Meteorological AgencyJapan Meteorological Agency - provides weather forecasts and warnings for Japan.The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is the national meteorological agency of Japan. It is responsible for providing weather forecasts, monitoring climate trends, and issuing warnings for natural disasters such as typhoons and earthquakes.- Accuracy: JMA's weather model has high accuracy in forecasting weather conditions.
- Resolution: JMA's weather model provides forecasts with high spatial and temporal resolution, allowing for detailed predictions.
- Coverage: JMA's weather model covers not only Japan but also the surrounding regions of East Asia, making it particularly reliable for localized forecasts.
- Data Sources: JMA's weather model incorporates various data sources such as weather satellite imagery, ground observations, and numerical weather prediction models.
- Update Frequency: The model is regularly updated to provide the most up-to-date weather forecasts.
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810votes
PantheraLeo1359531 · CC BY 4.0German Weather Service (DWD)
German Weather Service (DWD)German Weather Service - provides weather forecasts and warnings for Germany.The German Weather Service (DWD) is the national meteorological service of Germany. It provides reliable weather forecasts, warnings, and climate services for the country. The DWD was founded on October 1, 1952 and has since been responsible for weather forecasting and climate monitoring for Germany.- Coverage: Provides weather forecasts and warnings for the entire territory of Germany.
- Reliability: Known for its high accuracy and reliability in weather forecasting.
- Data Sources: Utilizes a vast network of weather stations, satellites, radars, and other observational systems.
- Model Resolution: Uses a high-resolution numerical weather prediction models for precise weather forecasting.
- Forecast Range: Provides short-term (up to 3 days) and medium-term (up to 7 days) weather forecasts.
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94votesWeather Research and Forecasting Model - used by many national weather agencies and research organizations.The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system that is widely used for forecasting weather conditions. It is designed to simulate and predict atmospheric phenomena with high resolution.
- Resolution: Flexible grid sizes from meters to hundreds of kilometers.
- Physics Options: Various options for representing microphysics, radiation, planetary boundary layer, land surface, and other atmospheric processes.
- Data Assimilation: Seamless integration of observed and model data for more accurate initial conditions.
- Model Dynamics: Conserves mass, momentum, and energy using advanced numerical techniques.
- Computational Efficiency: Efficient parallel computing capabilities for running on high-performance computing systems.
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107votesHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model - provides high-resolution weather forecasts for the United States.The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR) is a weather model that provides short-range forecasts for the United States. It is known for its high resolution and frequent updates, offering detailed and accurate predictions in real-time. The HRRR was developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in collaboration with other agencies and research institutions.
- Resolution: 3 kilometers
- Update Frequency: every hour
- Forecast Range: up to 18 hours
- Covered Area: United States
- Variables Predicted: temperature, wind speed, precipitation, cloud cover, humidity, etc.
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Ranking factors for reliable weather model
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Spatial ResolutionThe model should be able to provide more localized weather forecasts and predict weather patterns accurately for specific areas. Higher resolution models provide more detailed forecasts.
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Data AssimilationReliable weather models should use the latest weather data and assimilate them with available observations, as well as physical and statistical models, to generate more accurate forecasts.
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Computational PowerThe model should have sufficient computational power and run on high-performance computing systems to produce accurate and timely forecasts.
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Peer-Reviewed ResearchPeer-reviewed research helps to evaluate the reliability of the model, as well as the scientific methods and validation techniques used to develop the model.
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Forecast VerificationThe model's performance should be evaluated through continuous forecast verification against real-time observation data.
About this ranking
This is a community-based ranking of the most reliable weather model. We do our best to provide fair voting, but it is not intended to be exhaustive. So if you notice something or model is missing, feel free to help improve the ranking!
Statistics
- 2271 views
- 144 votes
- 10 ranked items
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Voting Rules
A participant may cast an up or down vote for each model once every 24 hours. The rank of each model is then calculated from the weighted sum of all up and down votes.
More information on most reliable weather model
When it comes to weather forecasting, people rely on various methods and tools to get accurate predictions. One of the most important tools used in weather forecasting is a weather model. A weather model is a computer program that uses mathematical equations and atmospheric data to simulate and forecast the weather. There are several weather models available, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. Some of the most reliable weather models used by meteorologists include the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Global Forecast System (GFS), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) model. These models are constantly updated and improved to provide the most accurate weather predictions possible. While no weather model is perfect, having access to several models and analyzing their results can help meteorologists make more informed predictions about the weather.
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