The Most Reliable Election Poll, Ranked

Voting rules: Choose the election poll you think is the most reliable!

Updated on May 2, 2024 06:54

In the swirl of an election season, where opinions and predictions fly thick and fast, the trustworthiness of election polls becomes paramount. Voters and analysts alike rely heavily on these polls to shape strategies and expectations. Having a reliable benchmark helps in distilling truth from the noise, ensuring that decisions are made based on solid data. This dynamic listing allows everyone to vote on which polls they find most credible, constantly updating the rankings based on real-time user input. By participating, users directly influence the credibility score of each poll, creating a crowd-sourced guide to the most dependable election predictions available. Your vote helps paint a clearer picture for all, making each election cycle more navigable.

What Is the Most Reliable Election Poll?

1

46
votes
FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight is known for its accuracy in predicting election outcomes. They use a variety of methods, including polls, to create their forecasts. Their model takes into account factors such as historical data, current polling, and demographic information. They also provide detailed explanations of their methodology and updates throughout the election cycle.
FiveThirtyEight is a website that provides data-driven analysis, statistics, and polling in the fields of politics, sports, and popular culture. They are known for their election poll models that aim to predict the outcomes of various political races.

Website: https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Founded: March 7, 2008

Focus: Data journalism, statistical analysis

Election coverage: Extensive analysis and predictions of election outcomes

Polling methodology: Utilizes various statistical models
2

37
votes
Pew Research Center

Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan think tank that conducts public opinion polling on a wide range of issues, including elections. They use a rigorous methodology to ensure their polls are unbiased and accurate. Their polls are often cited by major news outlets and political analysts.
The Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan research organization that conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis, and other data-driven social science research. It provides valuable insights and analysis on various societal issues and trends.

Founded: In 2004

Headquarters: Washington, D.C., United States

Research Areas: Public opinion polling, demographic research, social science research

Funding: Supported by the Pew Charitable Trusts

Nonpartisan: Adheres to strict nonpartisanship, objectivity, and transparency guidelines
Pew Research Center in other rankings
- Position 3 of 10 in Most popular polls
3

21
votes
ABC News/Washington Post

The ABC News/Washington Post poll is conducted by Langer Research Associates and is considered one of the most reliable polls in the United States. They use a random sampling method and adjust their results to ensure they are representative of the population. Their polls have been used to make accurate predictions in previous elections.
The ABC News/Washington Post is a well-known and reputable election poll conducted jointly by ABC News and The Washington Post. It is widely recognized for its accurate and reliable predictions in political elections.

Frequency of polling: Frequent polls conducted during election seasons

Sample size: Typically includes thousands of respondents

Methodology: Uses a combination of random digit dialing and cell phone sampling

Data collection: Conducted via telephone interviews

Margin of error: Usually around +/- 3 percentage points
4

16
votes
Gallup

Gallup has been conducting polls for over 80 years and is one of the most well-known polling organizations in the world. They use a combination of telephone and online surveys to gather data on public opinion. Their polls are often cited by politicians and media outlets to gauge public sentiment.
Gallup is a charming city located in northwestern New Mexico. It is known for its scenic beauty, rich Native American culture, and vibrant arts scene. The city is surrounded by stunning landscapes, including the stunning red rock formations of the Red Rock State Park and the majestic cliffs of the El Malpais National Monument. Gallup is also home to numerous art galleries, museums, and traditional Native American handicraft shops. The city hosts the annual Gallup Inter-Tribal Indian Ceremonial, showcasing the unique traditions and customs of various Native American tribes. With its mix of natural beauty and cultural heritage, Gallup offers a truly exceptional experience for visitors and residents alike.

Location: Northwestern New Mexico

Scenic Attractions: Red Rock State Park, El Malpais National Monument

Cultural Highlights: Native American art galleries, museums, handicraft shops

Annual Event: Gallup Inter-Tribal Indian Ceremonial

Native American Heritage: Preserved traditions and customs
5

12
votes
CNN/SSRS

CNN/SSRS is a polling partnership between CNN and SSRS, a research company. They use a random sampling method and adjust their results to ensure they are representative of the population. Their polls are often cited by major news outlets and political analysts.
CNN/SSRS is a widely recognized election poll conducted by CNN in collaboration with SSRS, a renowned survey research firm. The poll aims to provide accurate and reliable data on public opinion during election seasons.

Sample Size: Varies from poll to poll, typically between 1,000-1,500 respondents

Methodology: Probability-based random sampling

Data Collection: Telephone interviews (cellphones and landlines) and online surveys

Geographical Coverage: Nationwide in the United States

Frequency: Multiple polls conducted throughout the election cycle
6

9
votes
NBC News/Wall Street Journal

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is conducted by Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies. They use a combination of telephone and online surveys to gather data on public opinion. Their polls are often cited by politicians and media outlets to gauge public sentiment.
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is a widely recognized and respected source of election polling data in the United States. It provides insights into the political landscape, public opinion, and voting preferences of American citizens.

Frequency: Regularly conducted during election seasons

Sample Size: Typically includes around 1,000 respondents

Methodology: Combines telephone and online surveys

Margin of Error: Usually around +/- 3.1%

Geographical Coverage: Nationwide, covering all 50 states
7

11
votes
Ipsos

Ipsos is a global research company that conducts public opinion polling on a wide range of issues, including elections. They use a combination of telephone, online, and face-to-face surveys to gather data on public opinion. Their polls are often cited by major news outlets and political analysts.
Ipsos is a popular resort located on the northeastern coast of the Greek island of Corfu. It was created to cater to tourists looking for a vibrant and lively vacation experience. The resort showcases a long pebble beach and offers a variety of water sports activities, making it perfect for beach enthusiasts. Ipsos also boasts a bustling nightlife scene with numerous bars, clubs, and tavernas lining the main strip.

Location: Northeastern coast of Corfu

Beach Type: Pebble beach

Water Sports: Available

Nightlife: Vibrant

Bars: Many
8

7
votes
Monmouth University

Monmouth University

Monmouth University is a private university that conducts public opinion polling on a wide range of issues, including elections. They use a random sampling method and adjust their results to ensure they are representative of the population. Their polls have been used to make accurate predictions in previous elections.
Monmouth University is a private university located in West Long Branch, New Jersey, United States. It was founded in 1933 and is known for its strong academic programs and commitment to experiential learning. The university offers undergraduate and graduate degree programs in various fields of study.

Location: West Long Branch, New Jersey, United States

Year Founded: 1933

Type: Private

Academic Programs: Undergraduate and graduate degree programs

Experiential Learning: Strong commitment to experiential learning
9

11
votes
JlsElsewhere at English Wikipedia · Public domain

Quinnipiac University

Quinnipiac University

Quinnipiac University is a private university that conducts public opinion polling on a wide range of issues, including elections. They use a random sampling method and adjust their results to ensure they are representative of the population. Their polls have been used to make accurate predictions in previous elections.
Quinnipiac University is a private university located in Hamden, Connecticut, United States. It is known for conducting independent public opinion polls in the field of politics, especially during election seasons.

Location: Hamden, Connecticut, United States

Type: Private university

Polling Focus: Politics

Independence: Conducts independent public opinion polls

Reputation: Highly regarded for its accuracy in election polling
10

6
votes
Rasmussen Reports

Scott Rasmussen

Rasmussen Reports is a conservative-leaning polling organization that conducts public opinion polling on a wide range of issues, including elections. They use a combination of telephone and online surveys to gather data on public opinion. Their polls are often cited by conservative media outlets and politicians.
Rasmussen Reports is a popular polling company that conducts public opinion surveys in the United States. It was founded in 2003 by Scott Rasmussen, a political analyst and commentator. Rasmussen Reports primarily focuses on political polling and offers insights on election races, current events, and public policy issues. They utilize a combination of automated telephone surveys and online polling methods to gather data. Here are ten important specs about Rasmussen Reports:

Founded: 2003

Focus: Political polling

Methodology: Automated telephone surveys and online polling

Coverage: United States

Topics: Election races, current events, public policy
Rasmussen Reports in other rankings
- Position 8 of 10 in Most popular polls

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Ranking factors for reliable election poll

Sample size

The sample size of the poll should be large enough to represent the population being surveyed accurately. Generally, larger sample sizes are better.
Sample composition

The composition of the sample should be representative of the population being surveyed. The sample should be balanced in terms of demographics like age, gender, ethnicity, education level, and income.
Pollster track record

The track record of the pollster should be taken into account. Pollsters with a proven track record of accuracy and reliability are generally more trustworthy than those with a history of significant errors.
Timing

The timing of the poll should also be considered. Polls that are conducted closer to the election date are generally more reliable than early polls, which often have higher margins of error.
Transparency

The poll should be transparent regarding its methodology, sample size, and demographic composition. The pollster should also disclose any potential conflicts of interest that may impact the reliability of the poll.

About this ranking

This is a community-based ranking of the most reliable election poll. We do our best to provide fair voting, but it is not intended to be exhaustive. So if you notice something or Survey is missing, feel free to help improve the ranking!

Statistics

1242 views
177 votes
10 ranked items

Voting Rules

A participant may cast an up or down vote for each Survey once every 24 hours. The rank of each Survey is then calculated from the weighted sum of all up and down votes.

More information on most reliable election poll

Background Information: What is the Most Reliable Election Poll? Election polls are crucial in predicting the outcome of an election. However, not all polls are created equal. Some are more reliable than others, and it's important to understand the methodology behind them to ensure accurate results. One of the most reliable types of election polls is the probability-based poll. This type of poll selects a random sample of individuals from a voter database and then uses statistical methods to ensure the sample is representative of the entire population. This method reduces bias and produces more accurate results. Another important factor in determining the reliability of an election poll is the track record of the polling organization. Established organizations with a history of accurate predictions are generally more reliable than new or unknown organizations. It's also important to consider the timing of the poll. Polls conducted closer to the election date tend to be more accurate as they reflect the most up-to-date opinions of voters. When evaluating election polls, it's essential to consider all of these factors to determine the most reliable poll. By doing so, we can make informed decisions and predictions about the outcome of an election.